Innlegg

Chinese comeback after lockdown and the mild winter weather

Oil prices fell on Thursday this week after rising to new heights in recent days, as investors remain cautious amid lingering concerns about a global recession. On Friday, prices rose again amid signs of weaker Russian production and stretched supplies as the market awaits the release of the IEA`s monthly oil report to clarify the outlook for global demand.  Data published this week show that there has been a 22% increase in Chinese oil imports in March 2023, the highest level since June 2020. The increase is due to lower prices and discounted Russian oil, along with a better demand outlook. OPEC has maintained its forecast that the global oil demand would rise by 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023, unchanged from last month.  Because of below-average demand and sufficient inventories, the US natural gas futures price fell below $2 per MMBtu approximately 10 days ago. That is the lowest price since September 2022. The mild winter and the continuously low demand for natural ga...

Russia has diverted supplies and the European spring will have to wait

The oil price remains stable after a large fall in US inventories. Oil prices rose on Thursday amid ongoing unrest in Iraq and as a sharp decline in US crude inventories signaled healthy demand. US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 7.5 million barrels last week to 473.7 million barrels. The decrease in stocks indicates an increase in energy demand ahead of the summer season.    Russia's selling of crude oil at $60 a barrel or lower has been cited as a reason for the oil markets inability to command a consistently high price for WTI and brent. Major buyers such as China and India have sourced cheap supplies from Russia and cut back on suppliers from higher-priced producers. Russia has entered into a long-term agreement on the supply of oil to India, and in the face of western sanctions, Russia has diverted supplies elsewhere.     US natural gas prices have seen what appears to be their biggest drop in a quarter, with a loss of more than 50% for the Decembe...

Volatile gas and oil markets: Strikes, closed nuclear reactors, OPEC+ and recession fear

Bilde
Bloomberg reported on March 10 th  that benchmark gas futures settled 21% higher, which is the biggest jump since June. This comes as a result of concerns about the strike and problems with the nuclear plants. On March 7 th , French unions issued a joint call for strike across France as a response to a pension reform, which includes a proposal to raise the pension age from 62 to 64 years. The same morning, there was a blockage of oil product deliveries from all six oil refineries. Corrosion problems with the nuclear reactors was also a concern provoking an increased gas demand, with 19 of 56 nuclear reactors offline on Wednesday March 15 th . Last Friday, the 17 th , gas dived 20% because of milder weather and healthy storage outweighing the mentioned concerns. Spain also increased their power exports to France to aid the neighboring country.  Oil has also been subject to substantial changes this week, reaching a 15 month low Thursday morning. There is a number of reasons for ...

Rumors of leaving OPEC and the weather predicts higher gas prices

The oil price has fluctuated quite a bit lately and there are two main reasons for this: higher demand from China and higher supply from Russia. Indication that the Russian delivery has not yet been stopped has resulted in an oil price of 80 dollars per barrel. It is expected that 2023 will be a record high year when it comes to China's oil import.  On friday, rumors about Saudi-Arabia discussing the possibilities to leave OPEC, which caused the oil price to drop by 2,8 percent on friday. The Wall Street Journal reported a growing rift between Saudi Arabia and The United Arab Emirates, which are among OPESs strongest producers. The conflict sparked fears of a crack in the cartel's politics that could lead to more supplies.  Saudi Aramco, Saudi-Arabia's oil company, is raising their prices for oil shipments in Asia and Europe. This is because they see an increased demand in these areas.In Asia they raise the price for Arab Light-oil by 50 cent from the price in March, and wi...

How will the price and supply of crude oil and natural gas change over the coming months?

Bilde
Crude oil and natural gas is a multi-million dollar industry with a long history. The first known oil wells was in China and dates as far back as 347 AD, but the day before Christmas in 1969 is what most of us Norwegians associate with oil. The discovery of oil and the establishment of the oil fund had, and still has, a substantial effect on Norwegian welfare, with the fund reaching an all-time high this year with a value of 13 billion NOK. Most Norwegians believe that the oil made Norway rich alone, but there are more factors involved; First, Norway was already a wealthy country. Secondly, it would never generate such a profit without international events increasing the price of these commodities. In this blog, we will highlight this relationship with recent events, news and market developments. We won’t focus on Norway alone but rather the world as a whole. The two current most relevant events affecting the commodity market are the reopening of China and the western sanctions on Russ...