Rumors of leaving OPEC and the weather predicts higher gas prices

The oil price has fluctuated quite a bit lately and there are two main reasons for this: higher demand from China and higher supply from Russia. Indication that the Russian delivery has not yet been stopped has resulted in an oil price of 80 dollars per barrel. It is expected that 2023 will be a record high year when it comes to China's oil import. 

On friday, rumors about Saudi-Arabia discussing the possibilities to leave OPEC, which caused the oil price to drop by 2,8 percent on friday. The Wall Street Journal reported a growing rift between Saudi Arabia and The United Arab Emirates, which are among OPESs strongest producers. The conflict sparked fears of a crack in the cartel's politics that could lead to more supplies. 


Saudi Aramco, Saudi-Arabia's oil company, is raising their prices for oil shipments in Asia and Europe. This is because they see an increased demand in these areas.In Asia they raise the price for Arab Light-oil by 50 cent from the price in March, and with 1,30 dollars per barrel in Europe. The price in the US market is kept unchanged. 


Forecast of a higher heating demand in two weeks than previously expected and an increase in the US LNG export, results in the highest price of US Natural Gas Futures in almost five weeks. However, the demand for US gas will likely reduce next week due to expectations that power generators will burn less gas for electricity production. If we look two weeks ahead, we expect that the demand will rise up because the weather turns colder. 

Kommentarer

Legg inn en kommentar

Populære innlegg fra denne bloggen

Chinese comeback after lockdown and the mild winter weather

Oil prices fell on Thursday this week after rising to new heights in recent days, as investors remain cautious amid lingering concerns about a global recession. On Friday, prices rose again amid signs of weaker Russian production and stretched supplies as the market awaits the release of the IEA`s monthly oil report to clarify the outlook for global demand.  Data published this week show that there has been a 22% increase in Chinese oil imports in March 2023, the highest level since June 2020. The increase is due to lower prices and discounted Russian oil, along with a better demand outlook. OPEC has maintained its forecast that the global oil demand would rise by 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023, unchanged from last month.  Because of below-average demand and sufficient inventories, the US natural gas futures price fell below $2 per MMBtu approximately 10 days ago. That is the lowest price since September 2022. The mild winter and the continuously low demand for natural ga...
Les mer

Russia has diverted supplies and the European spring will have to wait

The oil price remains stable after a large fall in US inventories. Oil prices rose on Thursday amid ongoing unrest in Iraq and as a sharp decline in US crude inventories signaled healthy demand. US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 7.5 million barrels last week to 473.7 million barrels. The decrease in stocks indicates an increase in energy demand ahead of the summer season.    Russia's selling of crude oil at $60 a barrel or lower has been cited as a reason for the oil markets inability to command a consistently high price for WTI and brent. Major buyers such as China and India have sourced cheap supplies from Russia and cut back on suppliers from higher-priced producers. Russia has entered into a long-term agreement on the supply of oil to India, and in the face of western sanctions, Russia has diverted supplies elsewhere.     US natural gas prices have seen what appears to be their biggest drop in a quarter, with a loss of more than 50% for the Decembe...
Les mer